Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd90d…6fe4 other 9 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-28%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$9
tech 34% −$50
crypto 10% −$10
world 3% +$9
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 40% -41.4%
≤30d 5 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 40% -41.4%
≤90d 5 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 40% -41.4%
all 5 -16.7% -24.7% 40% 40% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 40% -41.4%
10% -31.9% 40% -47.0%
15% -38.5% 40% -52.1%
20% -44.5% 20% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$23 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$19 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$9 +175%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 8¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 6d
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.68 · official $8.69 (match) · 12 history records