Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd909…fd75 politics 33 markets active 519d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (398 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$17,436 (-22%) realized −$17,436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +245% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +140% what you keep after slip
Net edge+140%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$2,424per market
Trades / day397.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$3,639
politics 25% +$11,918
tech 8% −$351
sports 7% +$4,438
crypto 4% +$2,318
world 3% +$54
economics 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (398 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+212.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 33 +245.3% +212.5% 79% 58% +13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover397.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +212.5% 58% +13.7%
10% +182.6% 45% +2.8%
15% ← realistic here +155.3% 45% -7.1%
20% +130.2% 42% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +245% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$3,142) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +422% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$903 vs −$206 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.3 per $1 lost it wins $16.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2,424
Trades / day397.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 24 $11 +$951 +9055%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Jan 23 $683 +$3,927 +575%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Jan 23 $1,359 +$1,240 +91%
TikTok sale announced before April? Jan 23 $6,474 −$351 -5%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Jan 22 $673 +$806 +120%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 22 $673 +$1,369 +203%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 22 $5 +$854 +18945%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Jan 22 $285 +$203 +71%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $134 +$1,560 +1161%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 22 $397 +$2,175 +548%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Jan 22 $682 +$717 +105%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $1,231 +$115 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Jan 22 $2,735 +$143 +5%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Jan 22 $794 +$326 +41%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Jan 22 $3,142 +$273 +9%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Jan 22 $1,149 −$411 -36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jan 22 $670 +$1,839 +274%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Jan 22 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 22 $2,343 +$397 +17%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 22 $13,381 +$564 +4%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 22 $12,732 +$705 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 21 $1,202 −$61 -5%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 21 $3,424 +$675 +20%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 21 $4,818 +$533 +11%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 21 $578 +$1,130 +196%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 21 $326 +$25 +8%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Jan 21 $1,939 +$281 +14%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 21 $8,187 −$241 -3%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 21 $429 +$668 +156%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Jan 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 21 $4,504 −$337 -8%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 21 $309 +$1,877 +607%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 19 $4,288 +$126 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? SELL No 98¢ $1,149 519d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 72¢ $608 519d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 77¢ $100 520d
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 97¢ $137 521d
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 97¢ $134 521d
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 97¢ $1 521d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 81¢ $185 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $97 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $145 522d
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? SELL No 81¢ $1,414 522d
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? SELL No 81¢ $170 522d
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 97¢ $50 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $1 522d
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? SELL No 97¢ $174 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $5 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $7 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 70¢ $9 522d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 522d
TikTok sale announced before April? SELL No 37¢ $0 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 68¢ $88 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 68¢ $68 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 68¢ $5 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 68¢ $139 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 71¢ $121 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 71¢ $123 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 71¢ $31 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 71¢ $27 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 66¢ $148 522d
TikTok sale announced before April? SELL No 38¢ $15 522d
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? SELL No 63¢ $39 522d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3000 history records