Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd908…04a5 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$6
other 22% $0
politics 19% −$2
crypto 9% −$2
culture 8% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% −$1
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 136
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage157d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $29 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $121 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $100 −$3 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $128 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $29 14d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $29 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $40 26d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $40 26d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 34d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 34d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 97¢ $44 122d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $44 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 122d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 97¢ $41 122d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $41 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 122d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 122d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 122d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $46 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $46 122d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 122d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 122d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $47 122d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $47 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $49 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $49 122d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 122d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $42 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.70 · official $44.70 (match) · 577 history records