Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd906…6cc3 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-10%) realized −$55 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$25
crypto 28% −$26
finance 9% −$23
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.3% -20.6% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 1 -12.3% -20.6% 0% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 3 -70.8% -73.5% 0% 0% -58.5%
all 4 -78.1% -80.2% 0% 0% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.2% 0% -59.9%
10% -82.1% 0% -63.8%
15% -83.8% 0% -67.3%
20% -85.4% 0% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$14 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage98d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $49 $81 +$32 (+65%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 26 $24 −$23 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 23d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 59d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 60d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.09 · official $181.09 (match) · 73 history records