Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd905…d7a2 crypto 109 markets active 1d ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-6%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%56W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$93
other 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 51% 43% -15.8%
≤30d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 51% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 37 -17.0% -24.9% 51% 43% -15.8%
all 109 -10.5% -19.0% 51% 45% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 45% -15.6%
10% -26.7% 39% -23.6%
15% -33.8% 26% -31.0%
20% -40.3% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses56 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage347d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 4? Dec 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 29? Nov 28 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Nov 28 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 24 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3PM ET Nov 19 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Nov 09 $160 −$160 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 444 history records