Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd904…e16b other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,918 (+34%) realized +$3,495 · open +$423
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$205
30 days+$2,886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,719
sports 34% +$1,693
crypto 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 35% 32% +28.0%
≤90d 37 +1.8% -7.9% 35% 32% +28.0%
all 39 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 36% +26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 36% +26.7%
10% -15.8% 28% +14.6%
15% -24.0% 23% +3.5%
20% -31.4% 15% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$103 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$1,905
Realized+$3,495
Unrealized+$423
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 47
History coverage181d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $438 $1,075 +$637 (+145%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $584 $398 −$186 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $330 $335 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$91 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$9 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 +$65 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $305 +$26 +9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $72 −$50 -70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 +$282 +56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $51 +$100 +197%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $802 +$124 +15%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$764 +1521%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $397 −$392 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $403 +$96 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $745 −$469 -63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $649 +$725 +112%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $510 +$848 +166%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,222 +$1,965 +161%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $651 +$271 +42%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Jan 03 $200 +$68 +34%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 03 $344 +$39 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $387 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $139 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $423 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $121 5d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY $51 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 14¢ $103 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $53 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $141 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $206 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $95 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 13d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $102 13d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 14d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $19 14d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL Yes 35¢ $94 14d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,905.21 · official $1,905.21 (match) · 108 history records