Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd902…cdb9 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26,754 (+7%) realized +$29,419 · open −$2,665
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 46L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$4,292per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$16,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$1,694
14 days+$704
30 days+$20,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$28,802
politics 7% −$395
other 6% −$4,441
finance 0% +$83
crypto 0% −$287
sports 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -28.7%
≤30d 21 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 33% +1.3%
≤90d 44 -14.5% -22.7% 41% 32% +6.7%
all 85 -15.0% -23.1% 46% 33% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 33% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 24% -11.1%
15% -37.2% 16% -19.7%
20% -43.3% 14% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$4,802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,386 vs −$1,453 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$16,392
Realized+$29,419
Unrealized−$2,665
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)85 / 90
History coverage420d
Avg bet$4,292
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 78¢ $9,997 $10,613 +$616 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $4,037 $4,982 +$945 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 23¢ 4¢ $2,795 $432 −$2,363 (-85%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $2,228 $365 −$1,863 (-84%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 74¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $59 +$47 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $59 −$53 -90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$322 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $7,171 −$1,509 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $255 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $132 −$21 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $178 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $303 +$44 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 08 $4,000 −$57 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $9,700 −$5,299 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $21,596 +$7,981 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $36,999 +$7,590 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $41,502 +$3,260 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $3,757 −$3,757 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $14,417 +$18,823 +131%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $2,848 −$261 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $12,040 +$3,440 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $5,000 −$3,083 -62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $12,694 −$6,029 -48%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $5,154 −$4,435 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $10,000 +$1,220 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $984 −$574 -58%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 29 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Apr 29 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $5,533 +$1,608 +29%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 29 $2,700 +$185 +7%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 29 $100 −$70 -70%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $1,507 +$83 +6%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 14 $1,814 −$1,764 -97%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 08 $4,076 −$4,076 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $860 −$856 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $7,551 +$32,893 +436%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $1,320 +$177 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $352 +$148 +42%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 07 $2,620 −$598 -23%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 06 $280 −$105 -38%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $2,557 +$740 +29%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? Apr 02 $2,657 +$5 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $1,664 −$1,483 -89%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 27 $300 −$75 -25%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $450 +$50 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $450 +$50 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $235 −$220 -94%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 12 $434 −$228 -53%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $4,576 +$2,902 +63%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 08 $240 −$179 -75%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $444 −$432 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $50 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $68 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $9 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $946 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $14 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $87 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $131 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $8 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $735 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $178 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $178 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $248 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $9,997 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9,068 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $158 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,392.24 · official $16,392.13 (match) · 1160 history records