Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd902…1069 crypto 937 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$266 (+3%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%885W / 52L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$50
14 days+$126
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$209
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 371 +1.2% -8.4% 95% 4% -8.7%
≤30d 842 +2.2% -7.5% 95% 14% -7.8%
≤90d 937 +2.3% -7.5% 94% 17% -7.6%
all 937 +2.3% -7.5% 94% 17% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 17% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 1% -16.5%
15% -24.4% 0% -24.5%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses885 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)937 / 937
History coverage38d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 937 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1941 history records