Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ff…473d sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,711 (+6%) realized +$7,487 · open +$224
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,290per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$2,319est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$16,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,406
7 days+$20,691
14 days+$6,418
30 days+$6,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$13,601
other 5% −$6,958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.3% +8.8% 50% 50% +56.1%
≤30d 38 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 39% -4.8%
≤90d 38 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 39% -4.8%
all 38 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 39% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 39% -4.8%
10% -22.2% 39% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.7% 39% -22.2%
20% -36.6% 39% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$4,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,679 vs −$2,773 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$16,354
Realized+$7,487
Unrealized+$224
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,319
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3,290
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 46¢ $5,625 $5,687 +$62 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 54¢ $5,300 $5,400 +$100 (+2%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 53¢ 54¢ $3,905 $3,942 +$37 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $1,300 $1,325 +$25 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $462 −$462 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,953 −$2,953 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,485 +$987 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,150 +$9,834 +191%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,975 +$9,025 +151%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $221 −$221 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $279 +$196 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2,245 +$2,888 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,726 −$1,726 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,186 −$45 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $2,658 −$2,658 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $4,172 +$5,826 +140%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $983 +$1,214 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $4,242 −$4,242 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $7,750 +$9,749 +126%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $225 −$225 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 08 $2,137 −$2,137 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,817 −$1,817 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $4,118 −$4,118 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 08 $2,501 +$2,837 +113%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $675 −$675 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $4,250 −$4,250 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $7,725 −$7,725 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6,750 −$6,750 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $3,731 −$187 -5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8,450 −$8,450 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8,900 +$8,600 +97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10,144 −$10,144 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,589 +$7,911 +172%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $972 +$944 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $3 $0 -5%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $765 −$765 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,656 −$1,656 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 06 $1,411 +$1,812 +128%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4,260 +$5,740 +135%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $2,930 +$2,625 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $3 22m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $3 22m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $14 59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1,300 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $262 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $119 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $41 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $40 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1,702 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $68 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $18 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $21 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,354.34 · official $16,354.34 (match) · 783 history records