Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd8ff…c3bd other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+8%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$33
politics 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 60% +0.7%
≤30d 5 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 60% +0.7%
≤90d 5 +5.3% -4.7% 80% 60% +0.7%
all 6 -12.3% -20.6% 67% 50% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -2.4%
10% -28.2% 33% -11.7%
15% -35.1% 33% -20.2%
20% -41.5% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage597d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $78 +$4 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$25 +51%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $78 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $36 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $75 31h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 597d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records