Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fd…3ebf crypto 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,578 (-9%) realized −$1,576 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%149W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$1,402
other 16% −$920
sports 7% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.7% -4.4% 73% 50% -17.1%
≤30d 47 -14.6% -22.8% 55% 32% -26.1%
≤90d 284 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 32% -22.3%
all 284 -11.0% -19.5% 52% 32% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -22.3%
10% -27.2% 19% -29.7%
15% -34.2% 11% -36.5%
20% -40.7% 7% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$31 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1,576
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses149 / 135
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage47d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $114 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $108 +$17 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 +$30 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $99 +$6 +6%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $51 +$22 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $149 −$146 -98%
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Frederico Ferreira Silva May 25 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Kosice: Taro Daniel vs Oleg Prihodko May 25 $101 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 25 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 25 $103 +$17 +17%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $148 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 24 $154 +$7 +5%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $354 −$229 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 24 $104 −$70 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $403 +$10 +2%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $205 −$19 -9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$34 -67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $435 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 24 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 73¢ $108 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $125 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $108 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $56 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $78 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $113 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.33 · official $8.33 (match) · 1015 history records