Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fd…c36a other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%34W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,020per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$69
other 38% −$225
sports 13% +$205
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$9
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$8
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -14.0% -22.2% 8% 1% -10.8%
all 142 -4.5% -13.6% 24% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 6% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,520) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$16 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses34 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,020
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $504 $504 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,587 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $663 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,713 −$6 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $3,815 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,372 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $601 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 12 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,517 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,661 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $772 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $317 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $624 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $867 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,659 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $3,099 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $6,084 −$7 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,573 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 02 $388 +$1 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $513 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 30 $453 +$1 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Apr 21 $463 −$2 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $2,272 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,354 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,099 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,955 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $504 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $704 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $705 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $406 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $406 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $667 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $668 4d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $676 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $677 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $780 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $781 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $651 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $652 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $600 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $601 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $624 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $625 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $831 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $729 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $730 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $875 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $876 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $712 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $662 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $663 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $771 17d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $772 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.75 · official $503.75 (match) · 469 history records