Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D8 0xd8fc…49d7 other 403 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-0%) realized −$180 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%230W / 169L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$100
14 days−$5
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,014
crypto 3% +$93
sports 2% −$102
politics 0% −$89
world 0% +$461
culture 0% −$36
tech 0% −$4
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -66.4% -69.6% 14% 7% -23.2%
≤30d 35 -31.1% -37.6% 29% 26% +2.7%
≤90d 161 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 30% -5.4%
all 399 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 34% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 34% -10.1%
10% -23.1% 23% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 15% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$41 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses230 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)399 / 403
History coverage239d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3? Yes 75¢ 55¢ $196 $143 −$53 (-27%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $154 $62 −$92 (-60%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $278 −$5 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 15 $36 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $113 +$96 +85%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $47 −$9 -20%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 14 $58 −$56 -98%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 06 $112 −$112 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $198 +$81 +41%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $5 +$3 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $65 +$9 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 02 $70 +$116 +166%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 02 $128 −$105 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $118 +$189 +160%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $1,239 +$426 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6 May 22 $24 −$18 -72%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $45 +$15 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 21 $61 −$6 -9%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 20 $176 −$60 -34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 20 $34 −$16 -46%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 May 20 $62 −$21 -33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $14 −$1 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $5 −$2 -36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 May 18 $34 −$30 -88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $260 +$124 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $34 +$20 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $277 +$52 +19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $102 −$47 -46%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 30m? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $27 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $319 +$260 +82%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $50 +$98 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $1,695 +$63 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $56 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 41¢ $40 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 41¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 41¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 41¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 39¢ $49 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 39¢ $18 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 75¢ $138 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 74¢ $60 2h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $136 20h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 62¢ $37 20h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $136 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 87¢ $95 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 88¢ $44 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 89¢ $9 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 89¢ $53 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 89¢ $9 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 20¢ $0 39h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 37¢ $8 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 29¢ $2 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 40¢ $8 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 29¢ $10 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 40¢ $16 41h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 23¢ $9 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.02 · official $244.07 (match) · 1638 history records