Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fc…a448 sports 859 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-5%) realized −$655 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%485W / 373L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$166
14 days−$68
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$645
other 1% +$6
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -28.4% -35.3% 31% 31% -30.9%
≤30d 298 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 769 -4.9% -13.9% 53% 48% -22.8%
all 858 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 52% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 52% -14.2%
10% -17.8% 43% -22.4%
15% -25.7% 35% -29.9%
20% -33.0% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$655
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses485 / 373
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)858 / 859
History coverage158d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 858 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 54¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) G2 Esports 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 49¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 82¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$15 +74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$31 +156%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +413%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$29 +297%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$8 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$15 +145%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$14 +177%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $24 +$14 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$10 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$6 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$17 +180%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$11 +88%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $8 −$6 -68%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$4 -51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$5 -35%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 −$7 -48%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$4 -32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 1h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 38¢ $5 9h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 51¢ $10 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $11 11h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $11 11h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $35 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $20 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $31 17h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $52 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $20 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $7 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $20 25h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 49¢ $9 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $39 34h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $10 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 32¢ $6 38h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $36 38h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $27 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $25 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 40¢ $10 40h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $23 40h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 35¢ $8 41h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $38 41h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 62¢ $24 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $1.56 (match) · 1937 history records