Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd8fb…dcf3 sports 25 markets active 4h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$342 (-3%) realized −$338 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$177
14 days+$177
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$38
sports 22% −$353
crypto 14% +$158
tech 1% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.4% -17.1% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 10 -8.4% -17.1% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤90d 11 -16.7% -24.7% 36% 36% -9.1%
all 24 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 33% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 33% -12.2%
10% -33.9% 33% -20.6%
15% -40.3% 12% -28.2%
20% -46.1% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$182 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage347d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 41¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $112 +$289 +257%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $367 −$360 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $106 +$98 +93%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $204 +$284 +140%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,011 +$263 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $167 −$167 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $198 +$51 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $500 +$123 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 23 $295 +$20 +7%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 14 $2,900 +$95 +3%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $87 +$26 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 30 $306 −$306 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $1,434 +$497 +35%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 17 $1,257 +$40 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Oct 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 22 $1,222 +$35 +3%
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Aug 12 $1,120 −$80 -7%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 11 $240 −$240 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $88 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $367 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $94 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $21 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $27 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $51 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $106 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $81 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $204 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,274 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 28¢ $167 86d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $249 169d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $623 169d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL No 63¢ $315 175d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 180d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 180d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $39 180d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 180d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 180d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $100 185d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $12 185d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $24 185d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 59¢ $160 185d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 12¢ $22 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 12¢ $3 204d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY Yes 12¢ $11 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.38 · official $96.38 (match) · 79 history records