Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8fa…ebfa
other · 101 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses89 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage215d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 7 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 95¢ 61¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US strike on Syria by December 19? No 97¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +7%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Mar 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $2 $0 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at t Mar 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of Februa Feb 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Feb 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 19 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6? Feb 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 01 $3 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$3
tech 27% +$2
crypto 13% +$1
economics 12% −$1
world 7% $0
politics 6% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $2 9d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 11d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $2 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 26d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $2 30d
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 32d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 36d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 40d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 100¢ $2 44d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 100¢ $2 44d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 48d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 51d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $2 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $3 58d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April BUY No 99¢ $1 60d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $2 64d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 66d
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 67d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $3 69d
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 99¢ $2 73d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 75d
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 76d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $3 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 33 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 94 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.51 · official $12.51 (match) · 230 history records