Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8fa…33ce other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$13
politics 16% −$8
other 6% −$8
sports 1% −$10
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +36.4% +23.4% 33% 33% +14.0%
≤30d 14 +10.8% +0.3% 29% 14% -2.6%
≤90d 46 -2.8% -12.1% 24% 15% -10.5%
all 60 -2.6% -11.8% 23% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 12% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 12% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 12% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage607d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $9 +$10 +109%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $77 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $155 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $144 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 +$5 +70%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 +$6 +79%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $46 +$1 +3%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $17 +$24 +138%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $86 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 13 $83 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $13,526 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 4h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 6h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $9 37h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $14 29d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.34 · official $73.34 (match) · 273 history records