Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D8 0xd8f1…cbe1 crypto 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate61%61W / 39L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$52
other 18% −$2
politics 8% +$6
economics 6% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 30 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 100 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.86 per $1 lost it wins $10.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses61 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage236d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? Jun 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 19? May 27 $155 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 13? May 19 $155 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? May 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $155 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $155 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $155 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $155 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 10? Apr 13 $154 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 10 $154 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $154 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 2? Apr 07 $155 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 28? Apr 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 27 $155 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $154 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 6? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 2? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 10? Mar 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Feb 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 08 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $155 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $155 33d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $154 33d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $155 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $155 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $154 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $154 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $155 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 54d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $155 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 57d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $155 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $155 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $155 59d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $155 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $155 62d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $155 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $55 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $80 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? SELL No 100¢ $155 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $155 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $154 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.89 · official $154.89 (match) · 232 history records