Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D8 0xd8ef…7690 crypto 363 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,299 (-9%) realized −$2,284 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%170W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,542
7 days−$1,371
14 days−$1,531
30 days−$1,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$822
other 10% −$271
finance 7% −$622
sports 2% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -44.6% -49.9% 22% 20% -64.0%
≤30d 76 -45.5% -50.7% 22% 21% -63.7%
≤90d 79 -47.5% -52.5% 22% 20% -66.6%
all 393 -14.7% -22.8% 43% 41% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 41% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -27.6%
15% -36.9% 31% -34.6%
20% -43.1% 19% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$45 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$2,284
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses170 / 223
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)393 / 363
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson say "Border" or "Immigration" 5+ times at AmericaF Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Netflix say "Gaming" during earnings call? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson say "Democrat" or "Democratic" 5+ times at America Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $44 −$22 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United Airlines say "JetBlue" during earnings call? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $28 +$8 +29%
Will Netflix say "Ad-Supported" during earnings call? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 4 Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Ques Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$39 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar- Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Pfizer Inc (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump say "Texas" during the medal presentation on December 15? Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$35 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 46¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $30 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $92 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $43 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 37h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 22¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.19 · official $433.19 (match) · 3500 history records