Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd8ee…7351 politics 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$19
politics 38% −$19
sports 10% +$63
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 118 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 149 +1.6% -8.1% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×12.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage126d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $406 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $498 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $458 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $192 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $467 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $245 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 20d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 21d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 22d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $221 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 462 history records