Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ee…61af politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$4
other 33% −$5
sports 15% −$2
culture 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -6.0% -14.9% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage380d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $141 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -20%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -19%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $219 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 11 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $154 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 07 $2 $0 -21%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $154 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $1 $0 -50%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 17d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 28d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 108d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 108d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 114d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 119d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 122d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $70 130d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $70 134d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 144d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 146d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 147d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 150d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 151d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $70 153d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $69 157d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 157d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 157d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 157d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 157d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 157d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 158d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 158d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 159d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 159d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $71 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.83 · official $66.83 (match) · 316 history records