Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8ee…0378 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$183 (+12%) realized +$178 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%44W / 57L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$181
14 days+$75
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$203
other 26% −$13
crypto 11% +$2
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +96.5% +77.8% 54% 54% +29.7%
≤30d 37 +59.5% +44.3% 49% 49% +5.1%
≤90d 101 +23.3% +11.6% 44% 42% +2.9%
all 101 +23.3% +11.6% 44% 42% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 42% +2.9%
10% +0.9% 41% -7.0%
15% -8.8% 41% -16.0%
20% -17.8% 35% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses44 / 57
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage91d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$19 +63%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$13 -62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +271%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$4 -15%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$34 +337%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$3 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 +$18 +116%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$36 +709%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$8 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$29 +287%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$14 -67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$31 +152%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$19 -61%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 14 $5 +$30 +591%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$15 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$33 +66%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $30 −$1 -3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$34 +167%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $5 +$5 +108%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $34 +$19 +57%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $15 −$2 -14%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $20 +$40 +196%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $10 +$45 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $49 0m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes $4 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Spread: Canad BUY 26¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $5 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 99¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $45 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes $2 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $17 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $20 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $33 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $42 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.89 · official $54.89 (match) · 262 history records