Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8eb…76f8 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$9
crypto 19% +$2
sports 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +24.0% +12.2% 76% 71% -2.9%
≤30d 17 +24.0% +12.2% 76% 71% -2.9%
≤90d 17 +24.0% +12.2% 76% 71% -2.9%
all 17 +24.0% +12.2% 76% 71% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 71% -2.9%
10% +1.5% 59% -12.2%
15% -8.3% 53% -20.6%
20% -17.3% 41% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 36¢ $10 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 21h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 40¢ $30 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 32¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $105 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.08 · official $70.08 (match) · 35 history records