trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -8.7% | -17.4% | 50% | 50% | -8.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +8.5% | -1.9% | 89% | 22% | +7.7% |
| all | 14 | +6.1% | -4.0% | 93% | 14% | +6.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.0% | 14% | +6.0% |
| 10% | -13.2% | 14% | -4.1% |
| 15% | -21.6% | 14% | -13.4% |
| 20% | -29.3% | 14% | -21.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $445 | $441 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $189 | +$156 | +83% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 28 | $156 | −$153 | -98% |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | Apr 28 | $158 | +$142 | +90% |
| Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 27 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Apr 27 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | Apr 27 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Apr 27 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Apr 27 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Apr 27 | $196 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January? | Feb 03 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of January? | Feb 03 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Feb 03 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $31 | +$2 | +5% |