trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $6,000 | $5,997 | −$3 (-0%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $6,106 | $1,615 | −$4,491 (-74%) |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $1,768 | $1,191 | −$577 (-33%) |
| Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? | Yes | 86¢ | 89¢ | $467 | $482 | +$15 (+3%) |
| Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 66¢ | $98 | $81 | −$17 (-18%) |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $2,500 | $0 | −$2,500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? | Jun 10 | $2,000 | +$101 | +5% |
| Will Tim Cook say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? | Jun 08 | $124 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun | Jun 08 | $106 | +$597 | +563% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 07 | $2,902 | +$713 | +25% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $8,153 | +$389 | +5% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $8,457 | +$5,719 | +68% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | May 20 | $819 | −$384 | -47% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | May 19 | $2,500 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 18 | $5,020 | +$298 | +6% |
| Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | May 15 | $4,425 | +$560 | +13% |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs | May 15 | $1,983 | +$17 | +1% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their | May 14 | $6,169 | +$215 | +4% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 14 | $2,536 | −$2,500 | -99% |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | May 14 | $5,116 | +$123 | +2% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 13 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | May 12 | $304 | −$4 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 11 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 11 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 11 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | May 11 | $5 | $0 | -10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +148.3% | +124.7% | 100% | 50% | +15.4% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +36.1% | +23.2% | 73% | 27% | +1.0% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 55% | 20% | +0.9% |
| all | 20 | +26.4% | +14.3% | 55% | 20% | +0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +14.3% | 20% | +0.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +3.4% | 15% | -8.7% |
| 15% | -6.6% | 10% | -17.5% |
| 20% | -15.8% | 10% | -25.6% |