Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D8 0xd8de…241b sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,616 (-37%) realized −$1,616 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,898
sports 9% +$282
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 50% 50% +12.5%
≤30d 20 -26.4% -33.4% 40% 40% -16.1%
≤90d 21 -23.0% -30.4% 43% 43% -13.9%
all 28 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 43% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 43% -43.2%
10% -35.5% 43% -48.6%
15% -41.7% 43% -53.6%
20% -47.4% 25% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$185 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$1,616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage188d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 +$6 +176%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $4 +$5 +133%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 09 $7 +$3 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $6 +$3 +49%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $5 +$3 +48%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $5 +$4 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $3 +$4 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) May 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Mar 09 $309 +$286 +92%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 11 $2,060 −$2,060 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 4PM ET Dec 11 $456 +$456 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 3PM ET Dec 11 $574 +$574 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 7PM ET Dec 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 6PM ET Dec 10 $379 −$379 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 5PM ET Dec 10 $356 −$356 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $1 31h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $2 31h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $4 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 15d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $0 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 38¢ $0 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 17d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $4 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 26d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 28d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 29d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 69¢ $3 31d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.33 · official $67.33 (match) · 89 history records