Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8dc…cdfd other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$294 (-15%) realized −$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$126
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$150
sports 18% +$18
world 3% −$60
crypto 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -32.5% -39.0% 15% 15% -17.9%
≤30d 105 -31.7% -38.2% 14% 14% -21.3%
≤90d 105 -31.7% -38.2% 14% 14% -21.3%
all 105 -31.7% -38.2% 14% 14% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 14% -21.3%
10% -44.2% 14% -28.8%
15% -49.6% 14% -35.7%
20% -54.5% 12% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$12 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 90
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage9d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $9 +$17 +185%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +38%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 +$22 +312%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $9 +$76 +817%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$63 +103%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 +$49 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $8 +$12 +149%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -91%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -92%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $11 −$4 -34%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $12 +$58 +475%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 77¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 46¢ $85 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $124 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY 8¢ $18 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 32h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 33h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $123 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records