Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D8 0xd8d9…1059 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+2%) realized +$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%84W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$238
14 days+$158
30 days−$1,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$89
other 38% +$128
world 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.4% -5.6% 56% 56% +1.5%
≤30d 133 -20.0% -27.7% 37% 37% -23.9%
≤90d 171 +2.8% -7.0% 49% 49% -9.0%
all 171 +2.8% -7.0% 49% 49% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 49% -9.0%
10% -15.9% 48% -17.7%
15% -24.0% 46% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 40% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$43 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses84 / 87
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)171 / 171
History coverage53d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 171 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$59 -58%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$61 -60%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 +$81 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$56 +55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$77 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$95 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $153 +$137 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$84 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$60 -59%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$130 +128%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$44 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$27 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$92 +90%
Will Waterford FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$37 +73%
Galway United FC vs. Dundalk FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 +$24 +83%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 11 $37 +$40 +109%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$48 +93%
Varbergs BoIS vs. Norrby IF: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $31 +$14 +47%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $36 −$2 -6%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $45 −$30 -67%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$49 -95%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $51 +$32 +62%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $51 +$33 +65%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$34 -67%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$35 -69%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$37 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 18¢ $40 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 6h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $41 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 23h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $179 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $102 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $69 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $102 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $153 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $101 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $42 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $55 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $102 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $141 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 441 history records