Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8d8…fa24 crypto 57 markets active 5d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-33%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$174
crypto 47% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -38.7% -44.5% 33% 33% -66.5%
≤30d 57 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 40% -44.7%
≤90d 57 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 40% -44.7%
all 57 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 40% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 40% -44.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 33% -50.0%
15% -37.1% 28% -54.9%
20% -43.2% 23% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$9 -73%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $148 −$135 -91%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$5 -23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$6 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$4 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Spirit 20¢ $12 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $148 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 5¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 91¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 85¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 83¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 57¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 20¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 70¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 5¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records