Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8d7…7815 crypto 585 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$76 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%293W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$19
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +4.3% -5.7% 55% 55% -6.7%
≤30d 584 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.6%
≤90d 584 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.6%
all 584 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 48% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -17.3%
15% -27.0% 42% -25.3%
20% -34.2% 41% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses293 / 291
Open positions1
Markets (closed)584 / 585
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 51¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 268 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.03 · official $6.03 (match) · 965 history records