Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8d5…8935
politics · 307 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$67,871 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56,342 · open +$8,148
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$191,057
Realized+$56,342
Unrealized+$8,148
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses113 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions291
Markets (closed)147 / 307
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,421
Trades / day307.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 291 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,973
7 days+$22,700
14 days+$56,342
30 days+$56,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 94¢ 99¢ $15,977 $16,839 +$861 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $7,882 $9,504 +$1,622 (+21%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 99¢ $7,517 $7,892 +$375 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $6,316 $6,496 +$180 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $5,408 $5,493 +$85 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $4,797 $5,250 +$453 (+9%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,769 $4,860 +$91 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $3,660 $3,700 +$40 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 82¢ $3,330 $3,300 −$30 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 95¢ $2,993 $2,956 −$36 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $2,694 $2,781 +$87 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $2,783 $2,776 −$6 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $2,370 $2,607 +$237 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 82¢ $2,453 $2,475 +$22 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,234 $2,223 −$11 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,178 $2,194 +$16 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $2,096 $2,178 +$81 (+4%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,131 $2,168 +$37 (+2%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,138 $2,151 +$13 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 36¢ 89¢ $795 $1,989 +$1,194 (+150%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,984 $1,986 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $2,100 $1,965 −$135 (-6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,871 $1,944 +$73 (+4%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,895 $1,888 −$7 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $1,687 $1,852 +$165 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 13 $135 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $278 −$278 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $217 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $290 +$10 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 13 $279 +$21 +8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 13 $280 +$20 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 13 $581 +$19 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $1,117 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 13 $1,890 +$1,929 +102%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $2,256 +$44 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 13 $2,486 +$49 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $3,744 +$9 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $3,952 +$52 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $679 +$3 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $496 +$548 +111%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $989 +$11 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $389 −$177 -46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $964 +$20 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $5,852 +$19 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,685 +$27 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $176 +$346 +197%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $1,591 −$14 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $934 −$3 -0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $385 +$132 +34%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $364 +$48 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $232 −$153 -66%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $993 +$7 +1%
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2 Jun 11 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $7,887 +$257 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $12,377 +$175 +1%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2,346 +$46 +2%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $16,581 +$733 +4%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 11 $297 +$1 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,209 +$3,026 +250%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $2,994 +$274 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $63 +$7 +12%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $245 −$185 -76%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $12,477 +$77 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,522 +$335 +22%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $1,778 +$522 +29%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 11 $95 +$1 +1%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $997 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $147 +$100 +68%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 10 $330 −$130 -39%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $3,392 −$34 -1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $492 +$7 +2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $1,965 +$30 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% +$38,026
world 26% +$5,086
other 19% +$7,586
crypto 11% +$6,545
tech 7% +$4,153
finance 2% +$98
economics 2% +$2,719
culture 1% −$62
sports 1% +$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $34 8m
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 33m
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 36m
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 42m
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 45m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $92 54m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1,984 1h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $150 1h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? BUY No 88¢ $880 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 2h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 44¢ $63 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $398 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? BUY No 92¢ $355 2h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $30 3h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $4 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL No 100¢ $21 4h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $199 4h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $41 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $46 4h
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 50¢ $3 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $39 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 100¢ $710 5h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 5h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +9.6% -0.9% 79% 27% +0.5%
≤30d 147 +32.6% +20.0% 77% 34% +8.2%
≤90d 147 +32.6% +20.0% 77% 34% +8.2%
all 147 +32.6% +20.0% 77% 34% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover307.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 34% +8.2%
10% +8.5% 27% -2.1%
15% ← realistic here -2.0% 21% -11.6%
20% -11.6% 18% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191,057.24 · official $191,040.83 (match) · 3500 history records