Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8c4…41c2 crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%49W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$5
crypto 15% $0
other 4% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 65 -0.1% -9.6% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses49 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage552d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $37 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $63 30d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $22 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 63d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 99¢ $7 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 92d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $4 148d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $49 150d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 183d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $31 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 302d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $14 332d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.92 · official $55.92 (match) · 138 history records