Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D8 0xd8c4…260d sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% -4.0%
≤30d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% -4.0%
≤90d 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% -4.0%
all 6 +9.9% -0.6% 67% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 50% -4.0%
10% -10.1% 17% -13.2%
15% -18.8% 0% -21.6%
20% -26.7% 0% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×27.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×55.43 per $1 lost it wins $55.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $25 +$6 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $50 +$8 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Texas Super Kings 97¢ $31 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 78¢ $25 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $15 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $4 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 73¢ $7 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 71¢ $25 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 95¢ $58 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 82¢ $50 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 89¢ $18 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 74¢ $15 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 97¢ $160 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 97¢ $160 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 98¢ $1 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records