Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8c1…16c0 other 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,127 (-15%) realized −$10,738 · open −$389
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%80W / 60L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$14,663now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,953
7 days−$5,427
14 days−$13,107
30 days−$12,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3,418
other 25% −$6,978
tech 22% −$1,886
politics 3% +$63
economics 3% −$775
finance 3% −$389
culture 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$16
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -39.8% -45.5% 39% 27% -75.7%
≤30d 93 -25.4% -32.5% 54% 43% -43.7%
≤90d 140 -20.5% -28.1% 57% 45% -29.7%
all 140 -20.5% -28.1% 57% 45% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 45% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 24% -36.4%
15% -41.3% 14% -42.6%
20% -47.0% 9% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$359 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$14,663
Realized−$10,738
Unrealized−$389
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses80 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions84
Markets (closed)140 / 224
History coverage58d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 76¢ 84¢ $2,167 $2,384 +$216 (+10%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 77¢ 92¢ $950 $1,124 +$174 (+18%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $1,010 $1,068 +$58 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 92¢ $701 $965 +$264 (+38%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $760 $781 +$21 (+3%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $605 $610 +$5 (+1%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $390 $549 +$159 (+41%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Yes 63¢ 98¢ $330 $515 +$185 (+56%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? No 73¢ 79¢ $445 $479 +$34 (+8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 60¢ $600 $458 −$142 (-24%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 56¢ 47¢ $510 $432 −$78 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 91¢ $216 $276 +$60 (+28%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 63¢ 36¢ $415 $232 −$183 (-44%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? No 79¢ 84¢ $210 $225 +$15 (+7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? No 58¢ 27¢ $422 $195 −$227 (-54%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 60¢ 28¢ $415 $195 −$220 (-53%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 83¢ 89¢ $170 $183 +$13 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 64¢ $245 $176 −$69 (-28%)
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Yes 79¢ 82¢ $165 $172 +$7 (+4%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 60¢ 24¢ $430 $170 −$260 (-61%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $140 $151 +$11 (+8%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? No 71¢ 86¢ $115 $139 +$24 (+21%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 65¢ 28¢ $300 $132 −$168 (-56%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $150 $131 −$19 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 16 $360 −$350 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $2,440 −$2,411 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $265 −$140 -53%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $240 −$189 -79%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 15 $238 −$232 -98%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $190 −$146 -77%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$44 -87%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 15 $293 +$80 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $680 +$14 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,098 −$987 -90%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 15 $21 −$16 -76%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $210 −$143 -68%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $295 −$221 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$75 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $130 −$89 -68%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Lennar (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $20 +$17 +85%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +131%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30? Jun 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $405 in June? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Academy Sports (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30? Jun 09 $201 −$201 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 09 $142 −$142 -100%
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the Jun 09 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? Jun 09 $306 −$306 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 09 $482 −$482 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 09 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 09 $900 −$900 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 09 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? Jun 09 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? BUY No 81¢ $10 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $10 2h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? BUY No 84¢ $10 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 68¢ $10 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY No 80¢ $10 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 68¢ $30 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? BUY No 83¢ $30 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY No 80¢ $30 2h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $40 2h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? BUY No 81¢ $101 2h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? BUY No 85¢ $10 2h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? BUY No 88¢ $20 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 60¢ $10 6h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 75¢ $10 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 6h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 75¢ $30 6h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? BUY No 84¢ $40 6h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 69¢ $40 6h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 6h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 6h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? BUY No 82¢ $101 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? BUY No 82¢ $101 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 6h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 74¢ $51 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,662.76 · official $14,662.92 (match) · 1379 history records