Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8c0…6d2b
crypto · 385 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$33 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses290 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)381 / 385
History coverage138d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 381 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$12
14 days+$8
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 79¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 90¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) San Diego Padres 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -53%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$4 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $9 +$8 +93%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 +$4 +74%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $8 +$11 +140%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 Jun 05 $15 +$1 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $5 +$3 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET May 18 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% −$27
politics 21% −$2
other 13% −$5
sports 11% +$8
world 7% −$7
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $4 10h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 52¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 77¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $8 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 59¢ $5 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 57¢ $5 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 51¢ $9 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $10 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $8 6d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $5 6d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 6d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 68¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $7 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 9d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $14 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 54% +2.2%
≤30d 53 -0.7% -10.1% 89% 17% -7.7%
≤90d 234 -0.6% -10.0% 82% 6% -9.7%
all 381 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.28 · official $24.28 (match) · 1751 history records