Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D8 0xd8bf…81db sports 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$152 (+5%) realized +$161 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%49W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$162
14 days−$60
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$389
other 39% −$92
crypto 5% −$47
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +10.6% +0.1% 36% 32% +2.4%
≤30d 140 +8.1% -2.2% 35% 33% -0.0%
≤90d 140 +8.1% -2.2% 35% 33% -0.0%
all 140 +8.1% -2.2% 35% 33% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 33% -0.0%
10% -11.6% 32% -9.6%
15% -20.1% 31% -18.3%
20% -27.9% 31% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$161
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses49 / 91
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions6
Markets (closed)140 / 165
History coverage17d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 42¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 49¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $20 −$11 -53%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $15 +$23 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 30 $15 −$2 -13%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$73 +365%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 +$13 +123%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 +$10 +197%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$4 -37%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 −$2 -12%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 29 $20 −$1 -7%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 +$19 +73%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$12 +119%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $20 +$11 +56%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $15 +$4 +24%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $35 −$15 -42%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $20 +$44 +216%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams Jun 27 $15 +$55 +365%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $20 −$10 -50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $15 −$10 -65%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$3 -13%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -20%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $30 +$16 +52%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $41 −$21 -52%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $15 +$42 +276%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$19 -61%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $15 −$5 -34%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$8 -41%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $20 +$35 +172%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $15 −$5 -31%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 +$20 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 1m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 31m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $15 47m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France leading at halftime? AND Will Franc BUY 44¢ $20 48m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 59m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $38 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 20¢ $13 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $15 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $15 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 8h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $6 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $18 9h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $5 14h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 21¢ $20 15h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 34¢ $15 15h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $5 18h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $5 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 19h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 19h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 24h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.34 · official $125.75 · 311 history records