Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8bf…8ece crypto 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 370d only
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-0%) realized +$92 · open −$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%242W / 259L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days−$63
14 days−$63
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,367
other 20% +$705
politics 7% +$434
world 7% −$449
sports 7% −$84
tech 5% +$148
culture 1% +$25
finance 1% +$14
economics 0% +$165
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -29.5% -36.2% 37% 33% -6.9%
≤30d 69 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 28% -10.3%
≤90d 191 +7.3% -2.9% 43% 34% -7.9%
all 501 +22.4% +10.8% 48% 38% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 38% -9.6%
10% +0.2% 31% -18.3%
15% -9.5% 24% -26.2%
20% -18.4% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses242 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions6
Markets (closed)501 / 507
History coverage370d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $799 $715 −$85 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 28¢ $114 $82 −$32 (-28%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 27¢ $120 $81 −$39 (-33%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in June? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $55 $24 −$31 (-57%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $154 +$124 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $510 +$200 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $320 +$84 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $220 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $504 −$146 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $315 −$190 -60%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "What A Player" during the Mexico vs South Kor Jun 18 $86 +$52 +61%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $88 −$86 -98%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $466 +$393 +84%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $124 −$119 -96%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $45 +$27 +60%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? Jun 17 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $379 −$376 -99%
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $111 +$13 +12%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Charles De Ketelaere be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $96 −$31 -33%
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $449 +$153 +34%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $402 $0 -0%
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $74 −$70 -95%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $219 +$136 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $288 +$112 +39%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $225 +$205 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $165 −$65 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $54 +$34 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $37 +$139 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$17 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in June? Jun 02 $306 −$297 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$15 +144%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.59 · official $909.59 (match) · 3500 history records