Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8bc…67e2 world 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 774d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,407 (+5%) realized +$6,621 · open +$786
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 28L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1,760per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$24,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$413
7 days+$350
14 days+$460
30 days−$3,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$10,371
other 16% +$1,646
sports 4% −$1,530
politics 3% −$2,090
tech 2% +$111
finance 1% −$1,788
crypto 1% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +61.9% +46.4% 67% 17% +39.7%
≤30d 28 +2.6% -7.2% 46% 32% -28.5%
≤90d 65 -6.8% -15.7% 57% 38% -5.0%
all 66 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 38% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 38% -4.7%
10% -23.6% 27% -13.8%
15% -31.0% 18% -22.1%
20% -37.7% 11% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,655) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$389 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

774d coverage
Net worth$24,175
Realized+$6,621
Unrealized+$786
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions19
Markets (closed)66 / 85
History coverage774d
Avg bet$1,760
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $5,016 $4,738 −$278 (-6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 67¢ $3,532 $3,855 +$323 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $2,560 $2,670 +$110 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $1,710 $1,991 +$281 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,389 $1,632 +$243 (+17%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,444 $1,549 +$105 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,235 $1,322 +$88 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 80¢ $1,253 $1,235 −$18 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $980 $1,130 +$150 (+15%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No 91¢ 96¢ $819 $865 +$46 (+6%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 71¢ 78¢ $710 $775 +$65 (+9%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 93¢ $730 $743 +$13 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $840 $595 −$245 (-29%)
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $334 $344 +$10 (+3%)
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $319 $325 +$6 (+2%)
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $157 $154 −$3 (-2%)
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $109 $103 −$5 (-5%)
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $164 $62 −$102 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$413 +474%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$9 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $348 +$12 +4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $69 −$68 -98%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $630 −$90 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $580 −$120 -21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $334 +$266 +79%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $153 +$33 +22%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $94 +$22 +24%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 05 $95 +$44 +46%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $789 +$528 +67%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$32 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,320 +$540 +41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $318 +$172 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $438 −$432 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $411 −$406 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1,417 −$154 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,655 −$7 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,794 −$13 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $261 +$24 +9%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $107 −$48 -45%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $100 −$98 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $274 −$270 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,362 +$118 +9%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3,672 +$328 +9%
Will Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $203 +$57 +28%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $81 +$19 +24%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5,081 +$898 +18%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $12 +$5 +43%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $212 −$212 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $799 +$201 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $2,550 +$450 +18%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 14 $1,593 −$1,570 -98%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $425 −$419 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $2,760 +$240 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $950 −$128 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $5,368 +$132 +2%
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia May 08 $103 −$102 -99%
Panathinaikos vs. Valencia May 06 $98 +$190 +194%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $58 +$3 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $5,200 +$800 +15%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Apr 30 $512 −$512 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Monaco Apr 30 $78 −$105 -134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $200 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $48 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $213 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $21 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $21 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $33 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 3d
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva BUY Gustavo Heide 93¢ $9 3d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Hubert Hurkacz 70¢ $35 3d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Hubert Hurkacz 70¢ $35 3d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $5 3d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $61 3d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 69¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $739 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,175.02 · official $24,094.02 (match) · 933 history records