Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D8 0xd8b8…8367 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$180 (+5%) realized +$222 · open −$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%16W / 14L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day11.4pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$1,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	+15.2%	+4.2%	53%	53%	+16.6%
≤30d	30	+15.2%	+4.2%	53%	53%	+16.6%
≤90d	30	+15.2%	+4.2%	53%	53%	+16.6%
all	30	+15.2%	+4.2%	53%	53%	+16.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	53%	+16.6%
10%	-5.8%	53%	+5.5%
15%	-14.9%	40%	-4.7%
20%	-23.2%	37%	-14.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +61% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs −$14 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,957

Realized+$222

Unrealized−$42

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses16 / 14

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions6

Markets (closed)30 / 36

History coverage4d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day11.4

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$500	$492	−$8 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$400	$414	+$14 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$400	$398	−$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$400	$330	−$70 (-18%)
Colombia leading at halftime?	Yes	54¢	98¢	$100	$180	+$80 (+80%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$200	$144	−$56 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$15	+146%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$111	+$75	+67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+26%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$20	+$9	+44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	+$23	+114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$21	+105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$20	+$21	+105%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$12	+57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	+$33	+650%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	+$107	+105%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$308	+$73	+24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+32%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$51	+$39	+76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$81	+$82	+101%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$81	−$80	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$60	+$21	+34%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-94%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$200	−$1	-0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$61	+$39	+64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$411	1h
Colombia leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$20	2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$30	3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$10	3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$81	3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$10	12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$20	12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$10	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$20	21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$4	21h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	21h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	25¢	$4	21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$410	22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$382	26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$102	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	75¢	$10	28h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$51	37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	49¢	$81	2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$81	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,957.49 · official $1,957.49 (match) · 64 history records