Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D8 0xd8b5…b789 other 127 markets active 9d ago coverage 272d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 272d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$516 (-4%) realized +$121 · open −$637
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%80W / 42L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$66
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$978
other 24% +$483
tech 17% −$258
culture 5% −$8
politics 3% +$123
sports 1% −$17
weather 0% +$12
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+78.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -45.5% -50.7% 17% 17% -83.1%
≤90d 19 -21.1% -28.7% 32% 32% -29.3%
all 122 +97.1% +78.4% 66% 61% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.4% 61% -11.5%
10% +61.3% 52% -20.0%
15% +45.7% 43% -27.7%
20% +31.4% 37% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +120% → late +74% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$82 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$637
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses80 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)122 / 127
History coverage272d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? No 81¢ 83¢ $412 $424 +$12 (+3%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $176 $186 +$10 (+6%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 94¢ $49 $155 +$106 (+216%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $175 $75 −$100 (-57%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 31¢ 0¢ $349 $5 −$344 (-99%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $322 $1 −$321 (-100%)
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $408 −$399 -98%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 17 $58 −$4 -6%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 20 May 14 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? May 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 14 $6 +$4 +78%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 07 $30 +$5 +17%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 06 $52 +$86 +165%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 05 $27 −$18 -67%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 04 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $2 −$1 -52%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Apr 24 $565 +$125 +22%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 07 $49 +$19 +39%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Jan 02 $70 +$43 +61%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $123 +$190 +155%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Jan 02 $922 +$37 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 09 $97 +$171 +176%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $169 −$277 -164%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine? Dec 02 $14 +$31 +217%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $4 +$36 +955%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $70 +$20 +28%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 28 $103 +$30 +29%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 27 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Nov 25 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Nov 22 $12 +$22 +192%
Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30? Nov 10 $196 −$196 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Nov 10 $22 −$16 -72%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 07 $52 +$79 +152%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31? Nov 01 $1,009 −$906 -90%
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31? Nov 01 $358 +$22 +6%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30? Nov 01 $826 −$541 -66%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 01 $26 +$105 +396%
Will 'Superman' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Oct 31 $91 +$6 +6%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Oct 29 $1,490 −$216 -14%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 29 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31? Oct 29 $48 +$11 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Oct 28 $240 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 28 $133 +$155 +117%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 28 $1,020 +$647 +64%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31? Oct 28 $387 +$286 +74%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Oct 28 $75 +$17 +23%
John Brennan federally charged by October 31? Oct 28 $162 +$65 +40%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Oct 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 8d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $21 14d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 4¢ $8 14d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 40d
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $39 40d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 42d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 42d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 42d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 42d
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $16 42d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 42d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 7¢ $54 43d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $89 43d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $31 45d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $9 45d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 20 SELL Yes 92¢ $83 45d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 35¢ $32 45d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $6 45d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 45d
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 46d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 36¢ $0 46d
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $198 46d
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 46d
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 52d
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 52d
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 52d
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.55 · official $844.99 (match) · 3500 history records