Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D8 0xd8b5…54c4 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,676 (-5%) realized −$4,521 · open +$1,845
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 57L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$848est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$693
7 days−$693
14 days−$693
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,657
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.4% -60.6% 25% 25% -47.6%
≤30d 30 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 37% -13.9%
≤90d 99 -5.8% -14.7% 42% 41% -16.0%
all 99 -5.8% -14.7% 42% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 41% -16.0%
10% -22.9% 41% -24.1%
15% -30.3% 41% -31.4%
20% -37.2% 41% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$560) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$450 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$3,534
Realized−$4,521
Unrealized+$1,845
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$848
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage62d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 53¢ 100¢ $755 $1,435 +$679 (+90%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 0¢ 100¢ $0 $1,158 +$1,158 (+0%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 62¢ 62¢ $933 $941 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $559 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $48 −$47 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $548 +$407 +74%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $512 −$503 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $431 −$421 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $569 +$598 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $571 −$560 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $570 −$560 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $570 −$96 -17%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $285 −$280 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $285 −$280 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $853 +$18 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $571 +$1,039 +182%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $570 −$560 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $285 +$398 +140%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $154 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $568 +$451 +79%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $568 +$451 +79%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $284 +$300 +105%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $285 −$280 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $205 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $568 +$552 +97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $507 +$454 +90%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $274 −$270 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $844 +$1,111 +132%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $569 −$560 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $180 −$175 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $24 +$141 +596%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $774 −$760 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $274 +$288 +105%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $556 +$394 +71%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 16 $558 +$476 +85%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 16 $557 +$435 +78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 16 $561 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $561 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 15 $557 +$449 +80%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 15 $256 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 15 $559 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winner May 15 $275 −$270 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 15 $510 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 14 $408 +$763 +187%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 14 $559 +$728 +130%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $558 +$500 +90%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $560 −$550 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $559 −$550 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $559 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 38¢ $158 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $607 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 42¢ $507 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 45¢ $559 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 49¢ $609 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 47¢ $48 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $944 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 57¢ $548 6h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 42¢ $512 7h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 12¢ $103 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 20¢ $329 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 48¢ $569 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $571 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $570 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $474 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $570 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 40¢ $153 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 39¢ $133 18d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 37¢ $285 23d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 54¢ $568 24d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 32¢ $286 24d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $570 24d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 35¢ $571 24d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 41¢ $285 25d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 16¢ $154 25d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $568 26d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 55¢ $568 26d
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 43¢ $285 26d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $284 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,533.55 · official $3,533.55 (match) · 177 history records