Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8b5…bb10 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%59W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$26
other 11% −$15
sports 7% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 86 -5.0% -14.0% 69% 48% -11.8%
≤90d 86 -5.0% -14.0% 69% 48% -11.8%
all 86 -5.0% -14.0% 69% 48% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 48% -11.8%
10% -22.2% 33% -20.3%
15% -29.8% 26% -28.0%
20% -36.6% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses59 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$33 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.67 · official $11.67 (match) · 179 history records