Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8b4…aaaf weather 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate45%100W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 26% $0
other 24% −$9
politics 22% −$7
crypto 15% +$1
sports 5% −$11
tech 5% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 65 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 170 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 224 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 1% -10.1%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses100 / 124
Open positions3
Markets (closed)224 / 227
History coverage556d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 46°C on June 27? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? Jun 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 4? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Guy Morgan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Steven Boston be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 31? May 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 31? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 27 BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $11 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $22 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $22 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $19 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 26h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 30h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 46°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $15 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $14 33h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 46°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $15 33h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $14 35h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $15 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 39h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $0 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $23 40h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $17 41h
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.89 · official $56.89 (match) · 534 history records