Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D8 0xd8b3…01ba crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$56 (+41%) realized +$56 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+14.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+26.5%	+14.4%	38%	38%	+13.4%
≤30d	16	+26.5%	+14.4%	38%	38%	+13.4%
≤90d	16	+26.5%	+14.4%	38%	38%	+13.4%
all	16	+26.5%	+14.4%	38%	38%	+13.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+14.4%	38%	+13.4%
10% ← realistic here	+3.5%	38%	+2.6%
15%	-6.5%	38%	-7.3%
20%	-15.7%	38%	-16.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late +33% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$56

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 16	$11	+$27	+256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$4	-69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$30	+574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 16	$32	−$27	-84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 15	$13	+$18	+135%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$6	−$4	-66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 15	$13	+$18	+132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$5	−$2	-39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$7	+$5	+78%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$5	2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	99¢	$31	9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	41¢	$7	10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	SELL Belgium	13¢	$2	10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	42¢	$6	10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$11	10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL G2	99¢	$31	10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	50¢	$5	11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	38¢	$8	11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	SELL G2	24¢	$3	11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	38¢	$5	12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$5	13h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	30¢	$9	14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	37¢	$6	14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	SELL BetBoom Team	92¢	$12	15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY FUT Esports	4¢	$1	15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	43¢	$6	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records