Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D8
0xd8af…9e9d
sports · 36 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$8 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$134
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)19 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 17 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Over 59¢ 78¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Under $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 82¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner OpTic Texas 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Tommy Paul 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 56¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 19¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Over $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Over $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Cabo Verde $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
O'Higgins FC leading at halftime? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kim (-1.5) vs Yamasaki (+1.5) Yamasaki 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Over 58¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs ex-MANA eSports 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bouzkova vs. Vekic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Medvedev vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 66¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
First Blood in Game 4? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -33%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Medvedev vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $16 +$11 +71%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Kim (-1.5) vs Yamasaki (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$10 +187%
ITF Brasilia: Rafael Tosetto vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bouzkova vs. Vekic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% +$9
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O'Higgins FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 1h
CD Coquimbo Unido leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 1h
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $10 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 69¢ $10 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $10 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 4h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $2 7h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde $1 7h
Medvedev vs. Cilic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over $1 8h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Over $10 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Wanted Goons 49¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Iowa Stormboar 46¢ $10 20h
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist BUY Isaro/Poonacha 48¢ $10 23h
First Blood in Game 4? BUY Gen.G 74¢ $10 23h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 28h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $7 29h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 30h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $10 34h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 55¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -0.7%
≤30d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -0.7%
≤90d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -0.7%
all 19 +4.6% -5.4% 42% 42% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 42% -0.7%
10% -14.4% 42% -10.2%
15% -22.7% 42% -18.9%
20% -30.3% 42% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.71 · official $133.62 (match) · 51 history records