Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ae…a7e0 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (193 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day193.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$327
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (193 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 28% -37.3%
≤30d 58 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 28% -37.3%
≤90d 58 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 28% -37.3%
all 58 -1.7% -11.1% 28% 28% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 28% -37.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 26% -43.3%
15% -27.4% 24% -48.8%
20% -34.5% 22% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day193.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$15 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$46 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $55 +$88 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$42 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $49 −$28 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$78 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$30 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $38 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$40 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$21 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records