Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ad…4e9f other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day296.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 12 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 12 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.9%
all 12 -4.0% -13.1% 0% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 0% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 0% -21.2%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day296.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 −$3 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $85 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $17 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 0m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 0m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 0m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 0m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 0m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 1m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 1m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 2m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 3m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 3m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 3m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 3m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 3m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.93 · official $10.93 (match) · 296 history records