Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ac…b73d sports 668 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$971 (-3%) realized −$974 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%338W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$120
14 days−$118
30 days−$1,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,046
other 8% −$340
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +19.8% +8.4% 49% 49% +37.5%
≤30d 410 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% -20.0%
≤90d 657 +2.1% -7.6% 51% 51% -13.9%
all 657 +2.1% -7.6% 51% 51% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 51% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 49% -22.2%
15% -24.5% 44% -29.7%
20% -31.9% 39% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$974
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses338 / 319
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions11
Markets (closed)657 / 668
History coverage53d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $13 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+55%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$8 -73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$14 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$14 +179%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $6 −$5 -74%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$82 +265%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +276%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$11 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$65 +330%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$2 +15%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $1 $0 +27%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $3 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $1 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $3 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $2 12m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $2 18m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $2 20m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $9 21m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $2 22m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $5 43m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $3 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $1 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $2 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 9h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $5 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.99 · official $55.00 (match) · 1887 history records