Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D8 0xd8ab…b2e2 crypto 143 markets active 4d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-14%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%71W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -26.4% -33.4% 31% 28% -27.0%
≤30d 36 -26.4% -33.4% 31% 28% -27.0%
≤90d 62 -17.4% -25.3% 44% 31% -22.9%
all 143 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 42% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -22.9%
10% -25.8% 36% -30.3%
15% -32.9% 26% -37.1%
20% -39.5% 20% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses71 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage100d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $76 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 27 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 27 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 26 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 26 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 26 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 26 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 26 $67 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 26 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 26 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 26 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 26 $66 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records