Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D8 0xd8a5…26a1 sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-0%) realized −$392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%166W / 139L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$1,998est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$206
14 days−$248
30 days−$1,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +37.4% +24.3% 55% 36% -26.1%
≤30d 77 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 34% -8.2%
≤90d 305 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 43% -8.9%
all 305 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -8.9%
10% -21.3% 35% -17.6%
15% -28.9% 28% -25.6%
20% -35.9% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$222 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses166 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,998
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage85d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (60 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $83 −$73 -88%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $198 −$118 -60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $128 −$126 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $315 +$45 +14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $146 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $78 +$6 +7%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $40 +$37 +92%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $79 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $38 +$22 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $33 +$5 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $16 −$3 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,800 −$1,778 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $995 +$175 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,631 −$643 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9,037 −$2,055 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,626 +$85 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,405 +$168 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $140 −$139 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $104 −$8 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,319 +$1,429 +108%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,809 +$1,142 +63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,192 +$173 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,369 +$128 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,199 −$980 -82%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $500 −$491 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,145 −$98 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,000 +$730 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,213 +$210 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $627 −$626 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $158 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $537 −$512 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $900 +$46 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,974 +$205 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,000 +$1,010 +101%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $332 +$41 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $274 −$268 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $988 +$775 +78%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $349 −$342 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $180 −$175 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $489 −$436 -89%
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 10 $357 −$357 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,997 +$175 +9%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $495 +$26 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $169 −$123 -73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $12 +$15 +125%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,423 +$1,800 +126%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,587 +$642 +40%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 1¢ $2 39m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 4¢ $1 43m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 4¢ $1 44m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 4¢ $2 45m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 4¢ $1 45m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL Grind Back 4¢ $3 45m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 6¢ $5 54m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 23¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 28¢ $80 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 68¢ $198 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 57¢ $110 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 55¢ $6 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 50¢ $12 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 80¢ $127 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 74¢ $114 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 74¢ $3 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 71¢ $117 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $60 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 70¢ $49 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $17 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $18 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $75 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 73¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 51¢ $83 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 80¢ $71 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 80¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1568 history records